Market commentary for 11/28/2008

Market commentary for 11/28/2008

Good day!

We had nice action this week, for now. If you remember over weekend commentary this is situation what we expected after nice CCI 2d setup on the weekly charts. Because of that I will start with them. All has setup and they all have room for continuation. First resistance is 10sma and if that wont6 hold I believe that final target will be 20sma. Now, problem is with pace. For now we have three day rally and weekly CCI setup just triggered so I believe that rally will continue if we look weekly charts. But if we look daily charts we can see several resistance areas. The DIA closed above 20sma (good sign for long side), the SPY closed right at it and the QQQQ still have small room to reach that resistance area. In strong moves as we can see on the monthly and weekly charts resistances on the bigger time frames are more important. That not mean 20sma daily is not important but in bounce like this week I think that is not that strong as usual in less volatility market.
Conclusion is that weekly charts telling us that indices have more room for move up, but daily charts and 60 min charts telling us that we could see correction before that. Because of that new long trade right now will be high risk, but it will be very important to follow market action for correction after last rally, because that could be second swing opportunity and second daily buying wave. For now we have daily “V” bottom and this is not end of bear market for sure. Question is will we see possible double bottom on the daily, weekly or monthly chart. Right now, with very strong monthly pace I bet on monthly double bottom, and if that is case we could see few weeks uptrend and then reversal, but that is more guessing the chart reading. Only what we can do now is to watch market correction on the daily charts (when will start) and that will tell us a lot about future action.
Unfortunately (as most of you know) I cant send market commentary every day, because big changes come in to my life but as you know room is open, jimo is here (BIG thanks to him, docd and all members who keep room alive) and until new year I will be active as much is possible. Everyone who has any question feel free to contact me.

Wish you all good tradeing

Ivica