FOREX Corner

FOREX Corner
Date: 12/01/2008
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Good day all,



If you have any questions, please contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica
http://www.ivicacharts.com/

Watch list for 12/01/2008

Watch list for 12/01/2008


LONG:

SHORT:

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
ivica@ivicacharts.com

Market commentary for 12/01/2008

Market commentary for 12/01/2008

Good day!

Thanksgiving brought us a shorted trading week and with it came so welcome advances in the indices to also be thankful for. While the indices were up around 10 percent for the week several individual issues had a spectacular week. The naming of the economic team, the bailout of Citigroup, the added funding to get credit flowing again, the 200 billion added to the fannie and freddie fund drove mortgage rates lower and it seemed even the auto companies moved up hoping to get some the money the government is printing.

The day after Thanksgiving is not only shortened but it really is a light day of trading. Friday probably was the narrowest day we have had in probably months. On the 60 min charts we can see that buying pace which started the 21st November continued into last week, it is slower and slower which suggests that every new long setup longer than an intraday move will be higher and higher risk. The indices need rest for next low risk setup. The indices have room for another move up, but without a good 60 min consolidation risk will remain higher. Now the question will be if we see some consolidation which will decrease risk for a continuation or will we just see a continuation without rest. That is good for open trades but bad for new setups. I think the markets have room for more buying which we can see on the weekly charts. CCI 2d weekly started and usually we will see move in to 20sma. But I want to say we remain in a strong downtrend market and because of that I don’t expect to see an easy and “healthy” bounce. I hope I’m wrong, but I expect to see very tricky action with intraday sharp pullbacks and then back to new highs. On the daily chart we can see the volume decline on this bounce, which is not a good sign and because of that I will be caution with longs. I know the market is very volatile and we have big % moves every day, but don’t forget that with big % profit you can be wrong and see big % loss. Because of that we must have a good trading plan before we take any trade. Right now, I expect whippy action and I would use bigger stops to avoid fake moves that will stop us out. I use smaller lots and unfortunately the profit is smaller. The risk is smaller and I think that way we all will remain in the game.

I will expect the weekly CCI setup continuation next week and question is will that be without or with rest. Daily rest could form a phoenix pattern which will be the best option for us. First we must see correction pace before we can hope for the phoenix.

Wish you all good trading!!!

Kind regards.
Ivica
https://webmail.optimum.net/java_script:main.compose(

Watch ideas: for 11/28/2008

Watch ideas: for 11/28/2008





If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
ivica@ivicacharts.com

Market commentary for 11/28/2008

Market commentary for 11/28/2008

Good day!

We had nice action this week, for now. If you remember over weekend commentary this is situation what we expected after nice CCI 2d setup on the weekly charts. Because of that I will start with them. All has setup and they all have room for continuation. First resistance is 10sma and if that wont6 hold I believe that final target will be 20sma. Now, problem is with pace. For now we have three day rally and weekly CCI setup just triggered so I believe that rally will continue if we look weekly charts. But if we look daily charts we can see several resistance areas. The DIA closed above 20sma (good sign for long side), the SPY closed right at it and the QQQQ still have small room to reach that resistance area. In strong moves as we can see on the monthly and weekly charts resistances on the bigger time frames are more important. That not mean 20sma daily is not important but in bounce like this week I think that is not that strong as usual in less volatility market.
Conclusion is that weekly charts telling us that indices have more room for move up, but daily charts and 60 min charts telling us that we could see correction before that. Because of that new long trade right now will be high risk, but it will be very important to follow market action for correction after last rally, because that could be second swing opportunity and second daily buying wave. For now we have daily “V” bottom and this is not end of bear market for sure. Question is will we see possible double bottom on the daily, weekly or monthly chart. Right now, with very strong monthly pace I bet on monthly double bottom, and if that is case we could see few weeks uptrend and then reversal, but that is more guessing the chart reading. Only what we can do now is to watch market correction on the daily charts (when will start) and that will tell us a lot about future action.
Unfortunately (as most of you know) I cant send market commentary every day, because big changes come in to my life but as you know room is open, jimo is here (BIG thanks to him, docd and all members who keep room alive) and until new year I will be active as much is possible. Everyone who has any question feel free to contact me.

Wish you all good tradeing

Ivica

FOREX Corner

FOREX Corner
Date: 11/26/2008

Time: 04:50 ET
Time: 09:50 GMT
­­
Good day all,


If you have any questions, please contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica
http://www.ivicacharts.com/

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Forex Corner

FOREX Corner
Date: 11/25/2008

Time: 05:50 ET
Time: 10:50 GMT
­­
Good day all,



If you have any questions, please contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica
http://www.ivicacharts.com/

FOREX Corner

FOREX Corner
Date: 11/24/2008

Time: 05:35 ET
Time: 10:35 GMT

­­
Good day all,



If you have any questions, please contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica
http://www.ivicacharts.com/

Market commentary for 11/20/2008

Market commentary for 11/20/2008

Good day!

The PPI took the steepest drop in 50 years, the FOMC adjusted their outlook from bad to very bad and the markets plunged. It probably didn't help having the three auto makers begging Congress for money telling everyone how bad things are.

After a very choppy intraday action without direction, the indices started with heavy selling pressure at the 15:00 pm ET reversal period and brought the SPY and the QQQQ to new daily lows. The DIA still has a little room to reach that area. The daily volume increased and the indices closed at lows which suggests a continuation Thursday in the morning. On the 60 min and daily charts I will draw the monthly support areas and we can see that the SPY has a little room while the DIA and the QQQQ have much more room. For now we look what will be the next support area for the market. It will be important to see the pace for the next few days, because if it is slow choppy action will continue, then risk will remain high. Also, we must keep in mind that we still have bad news market so we can see strong gaps in both ways. For now good news is non existent, and every bounce come with new lows and the odds are that will continue. For now the market is heading down and telling us the selling pressure will continue next few days.

Scalps will stay as the safest places for lower risk setups. Everything longer than several hours is high risk right now.

Wish you all good trading!!!

Kind regards.
Ivica
ivica@ivicacharts.com

Market commentary for 11/18/2008

Good day!

Bad economic news continued as Japan officially is in a recession. Markets all over the world were weak and the US market was no exception. Monday started with morning weakness and after all the bad news that was not a surprise. Around 11:00am ET reversal the indices started a correction and actually had a strong start on the 5/15 min charts. Unfortunately it didn’t hold long enough for a stronger directional change. Consolidation after bounce was very choppy. Since the initial move after Friday's high is down, what we see on the 60 min charts I am biased to stay on the short side. The last 15 min the indices broke down from the afternoon range and closed at the lows.
If we look at the daily charts really nothing has changed. The indices 3rd try is still open and until indices stay under the 10/20sma resistance area it will be valid. In Monday explanation I brought the weekly/monthly charts and from that aspect everything stayed the same.
My focus for Tuesday will stay with smaller time frames because the risk is high and until we see “healthy” intraday action it will increase. Bias still is staying on the short side, but remember this is news market. Maybe some government decision can bring some more optimism, but for now all economic numbers are saying the market has a reason to go down.

Wish you all good trading!!!

Kind regards.
Ivica
ivica@ivicacharts.com

Watch ideas for 11/17/2008

Watch ideas: for 11/17/2008

Long:
GS next earning date: Dec 18, 2008

FDX next earning date: Dec 18, 2008

APOL next earning date: Jan 08, 2009

BAC next earning date: Jan 22, 2009

Short:

LUV next earning date: Jan 22, 2009

RJET next earning date: Feb 05, 2009

SIVB next earning date: -

_________________________________________________________________

If you have any questions, please email me or ask me in the trading room.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
ivica@ivicacharts.com

Trading plan: XLNX – Short trade

Date entry. 11/03/2008
Entry price: $18.10
Stop price: $19.00

Exit date. 11/14/2008

Exit price: $15.75 % results: 12.98
Result: $2.61

Setup chart:


Exit chart:



If anyone will have any comment or question please feel free to contact me.

Kind regards
Ivica Juracic