Market commentary for 01/26/2009
Good day!
I am alive and well in Croatia. The old Soviet Union didn't annex us and we are not in open warfare with Bosnia. I will say my webmaster probably has cut off more communication than Dick Cheney. Enough jokes, you have probably noticed my web site has been down and so has my regular email address. I have finally found a solution until they find a solution. I can use my blog, http://ivica-charts.blogspot.com/. I will post watch lists and commentaries on there until my site comes back.
Let’s get back to the market. From my last commentary the indices have come back from the highs close near the previous lows. The last several days we can see consolidation on the 60 min charts. The DIA is the weakest index while the QQQQ is the strongest which is not surprising knowing that the technology sector posted several nice earnings the last few days which influenced the NASDAQ. On the other hand bad news from the financial sector (banks) brought pressure on the INDU which we can see on the 60 min chart action. On the 60 min the QQQQ is forming a rounding bottom pattern, while the DIA is forming a symmetrical triangle with lower lows which suggests a possible selling continuation. The SPY is in the middle and when we summary all of them we can see a divergence which will increase trading risk during the next few days. I think the situation on the daily and weekly charts are very clear and we can see the indices are in a clear down trend with consolidation the last few last day. Question is what we can expect during the next few days and what risk level we will see. Technically for and ideal setup and selling continuation the indices need more rest. After eight selling days they need more time for consolidation near lows for low risk break down. On the other hand we can see earlier break down (especially for the DIA chart) which will increase risk. The next support is the previous low which will be double bottom pattern on the weekly charts. Another scenario is the 60 min break up for a lower high on the daily charts and then a selling continuation. Of course all is open and we can see strong break up to new highs, but for now the charts don’t suggest that scenario. From a risk level view it will be best to see more consolidation before a break down. I think that right now is question, will indices first break up for a lower high or they will stay in 60 min range action. For now a swing bias will stay with the bears.
Good day!
I am alive and well in Croatia. The old Soviet Union didn't annex us and we are not in open warfare with Bosnia. I will say my webmaster probably has cut off more communication than Dick Cheney. Enough jokes, you have probably noticed my web site has been down and so has my regular email address. I have finally found a solution until they find a solution. I can use my blog, http://ivica-charts.blogspot.com/. I will post watch lists and commentaries on there until my site comes back.
Let’s get back to the market. From my last commentary the indices have come back from the highs close near the previous lows. The last several days we can see consolidation on the 60 min charts. The DIA is the weakest index while the QQQQ is the strongest which is not surprising knowing that the technology sector posted several nice earnings the last few days which influenced the NASDAQ. On the other hand bad news from the financial sector (banks) brought pressure on the INDU which we can see on the 60 min chart action. On the 60 min the QQQQ is forming a rounding bottom pattern, while the DIA is forming a symmetrical triangle with lower lows which suggests a possible selling continuation. The SPY is in the middle and when we summary all of them we can see a divergence which will increase trading risk during the next few days. I think the situation on the daily and weekly charts are very clear and we can see the indices are in a clear down trend with consolidation the last few last day. Question is what we can expect during the next few days and what risk level we will see. Technically for and ideal setup and selling continuation the indices need more rest. After eight selling days they need more time for consolidation near lows for low risk break down. On the other hand we can see earlier break down (especially for the DIA chart) which will increase risk. The next support is the previous low which will be double bottom pattern on the weekly charts. Another scenario is the 60 min break up for a lower high on the daily charts and then a selling continuation. Of course all is open and we can see strong break up to new highs, but for now the charts don’t suggest that scenario. From a risk level view it will be best to see more consolidation before a break down. I think that right now is question, will indices first break up for a lower high or they will stay in 60 min range action. For now a swing bias will stay with the bears.
1 comment:
great to see you Ivica :)
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