WFMI trade
Long above 12.50
stop under: 12.25
I will look for possible swing trade. Charts will tell what is idea and if anyone will have any question feel free to contact me
Friday, February 27, 2009
Market commentary for 02/27/2009
Market commentary for 02/27/2009
Good day!
The budget was released and Wall Street gave it a big thumb down. The day was high risk and until the 15:00 reversal period the day was very choppy. With the move down at the end of the day we had a trend day down. Despite the weak day I still think we can see rounding bottom pattern. This time I will look for a bigger time frame on the daily charts. The support area is very strong (based on the monthly support) and obviously the bounce from it is very weak for now which will increase the odds for rounding bottom action. My focus will be on the bigger time frame setups. I know that means swing trades that are higher risk to stay in any trade over night during news driven market. But to avoid intraday sharp moves in both directions that is good way to avoid number of intraday stops and then swift reversals. It is also important that we use bigger stops and if we want to stay with lower risk setup (which is very important in this market) we need to use smaller lots than usual. I know that is not popular but any other way is to be a very fast scalp trader and take setups based on small time frames. Third option is cash. I will combine the third and first option because I’m not a good scalp trader my focus will be on possible setups on the 60 min, daily, weekly and monthly charts. If the indices stay weak the next few days and if they continue with short setups (spy and DIA bear flag, while the QQQQ for base) formation, I will change my bias and I will start to look for shorts again. I want enough of a long consolidation for that possibility. Right now my focus is with longs or nothing (cash)
For those of you that use to come into the trading room and stopped, I am back full time and welcome all of you to come again. There is nothing to lose since there is no charge for the service right now. I look forward to seeing you all there.
For those of you that use to come into the trading room and stopped, I want to tell you the I am back full time and welcome all of you to come again. There is nothing to lose since there is no charge for the service right now. I look forward to seeing you all there.
Good day!
The budget was released and Wall Street gave it a big thumb down. The day was high risk and until the 15:00 reversal period the day was very choppy. With the move down at the end of the day we had a trend day down. Despite the weak day I still think we can see rounding bottom pattern. This time I will look for a bigger time frame on the daily charts. The support area is very strong (based on the monthly support) and obviously the bounce from it is very weak for now which will increase the odds for rounding bottom action. My focus will be on the bigger time frame setups. I know that means swing trades that are higher risk to stay in any trade over night during news driven market. But to avoid intraday sharp moves in both directions that is good way to avoid number of intraday stops and then swift reversals. It is also important that we use bigger stops and if we want to stay with lower risk setup (which is very important in this market) we need to use smaller lots than usual. I know that is not popular but any other way is to be a very fast scalp trader and take setups based on small time frames. Third option is cash. I will combine the third and first option because I’m not a good scalp trader my focus will be on possible setups on the 60 min, daily, weekly and monthly charts. If the indices stay weak the next few days and if they continue with short setups (spy and DIA bear flag, while the QQQQ for base) formation, I will change my bias and I will start to look for shorts again. I want enough of a long consolidation for that possibility. Right now my focus is with longs or nothing (cash)
For those of you that use to come into the trading room and stopped, I am back full time and welcome all of you to come again. There is nothing to lose since there is no charge for the service right now. I look forward to seeing you all there.
For those of you that use to come into the trading room and stopped, I want to tell you the I am back full time and welcome all of you to come again. There is nothing to lose since there is no charge for the service right now. I look forward to seeing you all there.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Watch list for 02/26/2009
LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
EQR and KIM are same sector (services). I like also AIV and LHO weekly setups and they are same as EQR and LHO. Don't take them all only one or two because they are all same sector and similar setups
____________________________________________________
SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
_____________________________________________________
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
_____________________________________________________
Watch ideas:
Long:
Short:
_______________________________________________________
DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade
_______________________________________________________
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
danded2005@inet.hr
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Market commentary for 02/26/2009
Market commentary for 02/26/2009
Good day!
Looking at the daily charts we can see big doji bar and that means indecision. The daily support area is still holding but the recovery is difficult and that probably results in the very whippy intraday action that we can see on the 60 min charts. Once the complete banking plan come out we probably will move one way or the other. We saw several strong moves in both directions which increased the risk for new setups and for intraday trading. Right now the safest way to trade is to take the 60 min or daily setups with bigger stops and smaller lots. That way we can avoid being stopped on the intraday sharp moves and fake breakouts. On the 60 min chart I was looking for a possible reversal head and shoulders pattern and they are still valid but definitely the intraday action didn't help. I found several nice weekly and daily CCI setups and they are still valid, but with the indecisive market it is very important to use the proper risk. In a normal market (what is normal now?) they usually all will work well, but don’t forget that we are in the news market and a technical analyst can be damaged with any bad news considering the economic situation of the world. As trader, right now we have two options. One is to be in cash and wait to see what will happen during the next few days and another is to use bigger time setups with larger stops and that means to use smaller lots than usual. That will decrease the possible profit, but it also will save you from a bigger loss. Look at the daily chart and the big doji with volume and it will tell you how indecisive the situation is right now. For tomorrow I will follow market action and I will stick with that plan and hope the intraday action will calm down and provide us with better risk setups.
For those of you that use to come into the trading room and stopped, I want to tell you the I am back full time and welcome all of you to come again. There is nothing to lose since there is no charge for the service right now. I look forward to seeing you all there.
Good day!
Looking at the daily charts we can see big doji bar and that means indecision. The daily support area is still holding but the recovery is difficult and that probably results in the very whippy intraday action that we can see on the 60 min charts. Once the complete banking plan come out we probably will move one way or the other. We saw several strong moves in both directions which increased the risk for new setups and for intraday trading. Right now the safest way to trade is to take the 60 min or daily setups with bigger stops and smaller lots. That way we can avoid being stopped on the intraday sharp moves and fake breakouts. On the 60 min chart I was looking for a possible reversal head and shoulders pattern and they are still valid but definitely the intraday action didn't help. I found several nice weekly and daily CCI setups and they are still valid, but with the indecisive market it is very important to use the proper risk. In a normal market (what is normal now?) they usually all will work well, but don’t forget that we are in the news market and a technical analyst can be damaged with any bad news considering the economic situation of the world. As trader, right now we have two options. One is to be in cash and wait to see what will happen during the next few days and another is to use bigger time setups with larger stops and that means to use smaller lots than usual. That will decrease the possible profit, but it also will save you from a bigger loss. Look at the daily chart and the big doji with volume and it will tell you how indecisive the situation is right now. For tomorrow I will follow market action and I will stick with that plan and hope the intraday action will calm down and provide us with better risk setups.
For those of you that use to come into the trading room and stopped, I want to tell you the I am back full time and welcome all of you to come again. There is nothing to lose since there is no charge for the service right now. I look forward to seeing you all there.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Market commentary for 02/25/2009
Market commentary for 02/25/2009
Good day!
NOTE: next 10 days my site will be at http://www.pop35.com.hr/ I will be there until my official site will back (they said about 10 days). Thank you all for understanding.
First I want to apologies because I didn’t post anything for Tuesday. I had problems with my stomach and I still don’t feel well, so I wasn’t near computer last three days. I’m not sure if I will have strength for watch list but like to tell few words because market is in possible significant recovery and I like to give few ideas. After bad Monday indices back all and formed 60 min “V” bottom. There are number of CCI ideas what I sent for Monday watch list and they are all still valid and they are all swing possibilities and I will focus on them. Also look at 60 min charts; it was really nice CCI setup (same as 120 min triple CCI setup) and in combination with monthly support and SPY double bottom I think that we could see more then day or two bounce. First resistance will be Monday high and after that daily 10sma. I don’t know how strong bounce will be, but I know that this is opportunity for several weeks correction and I will watch them on the weekly charts. If you missed yesterday rally, right now is important to see will 60 min “bottom” hold. That is right now main focus, because if that will be case then we will get consolidation (handle) and that will be another opportunity for continuation. Because of that I won’t take new trades right at the open. I missed several nicer weekly CCI setups and I will look for consolidations and new opportunities.
Good day!
NOTE: next 10 days my site will be at http://www.pop35.com.hr/ I will be there until my official site will back (they said about 10 days). Thank you all for understanding.
First I want to apologies because I didn’t post anything for Tuesday. I had problems with my stomach and I still don’t feel well, so I wasn’t near computer last three days. I’m not sure if I will have strength for watch list but like to tell few words because market is in possible significant recovery and I like to give few ideas. After bad Monday indices back all and formed 60 min “V” bottom. There are number of CCI ideas what I sent for Monday watch list and they are all still valid and they are all swing possibilities and I will focus on them. Also look at 60 min charts; it was really nice CCI setup (same as 120 min triple CCI setup) and in combination with monthly support and SPY double bottom I think that we could see more then day or two bounce. First resistance will be Monday high and after that daily 10sma. I don’t know how strong bounce will be, but I know that this is opportunity for several weeks correction and I will watch them on the weekly charts. If you missed yesterday rally, right now is important to see will 60 min “bottom” hold. That is right now main focus, because if that will be case then we will get consolidation (handle) and that will be another opportunity for continuation. Because of that I won’t take new trades right at the open. I missed several nicer weekly CCI setups and I will look for consolidations and new opportunities.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Market commentary for 02/23/2009
Market commentary for 02/23/2009
Good day!
NOTE: next 10 days my site will be at http://www.pop35.com.hr/ I will be there until my official site will back (they said about 10 days). Thank you all for understanding.
The financials are still in control. With the financial index at an all time low and the threat of the C, BAC and WFC being nationalized the markets followed their lead and fell to new lows. These rumors continued and the market followed. The housing solution plan was met quite tepidity and now we are in a wait and see mode. The stimulus plan was signed and that will just take time as well.
The question remains, did the market hit bottom? I’m not sure about that. If the indices break above Friday's high that will be a signal for a daily correction (next resistances will be 10sma and 20sma), or if they break below Friday's low that will be a signal for continuation to previous lows. We can see on the SPY and the QQQQ daily chart that both have room for more selling. Also the CCI is not in oversold area.
The DIA is already at new lows and has some room to reach the $70 number support area. I think the indices still have room for more selling in future days or weeks. It does not mean the monthly support will not work, but it means we could see slightly lower lows on the weekly charts and then another bounce line after the November lows. It will also be a double divergence setup for the SPY and the DIA on the weekly charts. One thing is for sure, trading risk is very high risk now, Market is very nervous and the daily doji bar on the DIA and the SPY chart is telling us about indecision. The 15 min charts are giving us an opportunity for a nice bounce. I’m not interested in new shorts and my focus will be on long trades. That is because we could see strong bounce anytime, something that we see on the 15 min charts we could see on the bigger time frames and I don’t want to be in the short trade in that case. On the other side I don’t want be too aggressive with longs before they prove out. I will follow 15 min charts. Here is the SPY example.
This is a book reversal pattern (phoenix) and a possible continuation will lead to daily correction which could hold for several days (until 10/20sma resistance area). If that does not hold I will just wait for another opportunity for a bounce. Conclusion is that I’m focused on the 15 min phoenix setup and long trades. In case that doesn't happen I will stay away and I will wait another reversal opportunity. If we will see a bounce I will look for 10/20resistance area on the daily charts. For now it is too early to see that lead to a daily trend reversal or just another correction before a new selling wave.
Good day!
NOTE: next 10 days my site will be at http://www.pop35.com.hr/ I will be there until my official site will back (they said about 10 days). Thank you all for understanding.
The financials are still in control. With the financial index at an all time low and the threat of the C, BAC and WFC being nationalized the markets followed their lead and fell to new lows. These rumors continued and the market followed. The housing solution plan was met quite tepidity and now we are in a wait and see mode. The stimulus plan was signed and that will just take time as well.
The question remains, did the market hit bottom? I’m not sure about that. If the indices break above Friday's high that will be a signal for a daily correction (next resistances will be 10sma and 20sma), or if they break below Friday's low that will be a signal for continuation to previous lows. We can see on the SPY and the QQQQ daily chart that both have room for more selling. Also the CCI is not in oversold area.
The DIA is already at new lows and has some room to reach the $70 number support area. I think the indices still have room for more selling in future days or weeks. It does not mean the monthly support will not work, but it means we could see slightly lower lows on the weekly charts and then another bounce line after the November lows. It will also be a double divergence setup for the SPY and the DIA on the weekly charts. One thing is for sure, trading risk is very high risk now, Market is very nervous and the daily doji bar on the DIA and the SPY chart is telling us about indecision. The 15 min charts are giving us an opportunity for a nice bounce. I’m not interested in new shorts and my focus will be on long trades. That is because we could see strong bounce anytime, something that we see on the 15 min charts we could see on the bigger time frames and I don’t want to be in the short trade in that case. On the other side I don’t want be too aggressive with longs before they prove out. I will follow 15 min charts. Here is the SPY example.
This is a book reversal pattern (phoenix) and a possible continuation will lead to daily correction which could hold for several days (until 10/20sma resistance area). If that does not hold I will just wait for another opportunity for a bounce. Conclusion is that I’m focused on the 15 min phoenix setup and long trades. In case that doesn't happen I will stay away and I will wait another reversal opportunity. If we will see a bounce I will look for 10/20resistance area on the daily charts. For now it is too early to see that lead to a daily trend reversal or just another correction before a new selling wave.
Watch list for 02/23/2009
Watch list for 02/23/2009
LONG:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
LONG:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
_____________________________________________________
Watch ideas:
Long:
I found number of CCI possibilities: JCI, LHO, FDX, ALV, EQR, MAS and EK. If market will bounce them will all be good for swing. Setup is above Friday high and stop is under Friday low. I will determine targets depend on the action.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
mailto:ivica@ivicacharts.com
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