Market commentary for 04/20/2009

Market commentary for 04/20/2009

Good day,

C, GE and GOOG all reported and they all beat expectations so the market goes up, why not it seems that is the only direction it wants to go right now. Friday really didn’t provide any change. The market just advanced for the 6th consecutive week. I sure didn't expect that. Right now we can’t do anything new. Market is extended and where the top will be we just don't know. Will next week give us another continuation or finally a reversal? Right now no one has that answer. We do know next week is a very heavy week of earnings so we will see the true shape of corporate earnings. We do know that without some consolidation we will not have any low risk swing setups. Since indices are still in a “V” bottom and since they still are on the move we have to wait. On the 60 min, daily and weekly charts we can see the resistance is very close or right at it. Resistance is an area and not an exact number. If we have seen the high that would not be a surprise since we are at resistance. Since the indices closed strong on the weekly charts, it wouldn't be a surprise if we see another push up. That scenario can happen and that is scenario is the reason I won’t trade. Trading risk is too high. On the daily charts the indices formed doji bar which mean indecision. QQQQ forming odds for 3d CCI setup, resistance area is here and if Monday brings another push to the 200sma resistance that will not be a big surprise. Same situation is with the SPY and the DIA. Nothing changed from my last commentary and for Monday my main focus will be to wait and see what will happens. I’m more interested in shorts right now because it is logical that as swing trader I will see more possibilities with that direction, but that not mean I will sell highs right at resistance. I like to see, at least intraday an initial move (avalanche) which can lead to a swing trade. Right now I don’t see that happening so all I can do is wait. For those who follow me know that my main occupation is to find low risk setups and right now risk is just too high, so we must wait. Remember, cash is a position also. Next week I will start with the mentoring program and that will be focus with my members. I will also give calls in main room, but my activity will be lighter than usual. If anyone needs me you can always email me or IM me in the trading room.

charts are at: www.ivicatradingcharts.com

Wish you all good trading!!!

Kind regards.
ivica@ivicatradingcharts.com
Ivica