Market commentary for 07/10/2009
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Good day,
Thursday brought a consolidation day which is common after continued selling. On the 60 min charts we can see what kind of action we got and first conclusion is the bounce from the low is not strong, not stronger than the selling into low. That action increases the odds for selling pressure on Friday to the previous low which will form a double bottom pattern. All this depends on the selling pace. Of course that is just one scenario and since Thursday's action was not very strong all options are open. We can see the bounce continuation if the 60 min 10sma will hold and we can see range action. Right now the charts don’t suggest any clear direction and we can’t change that, but we can expect risk level and without clear direction it won’t be low.
Good day,
Thursday brought a consolidation day which is common after continued selling. On the 60 min charts we can see what kind of action we got and first conclusion is the bounce from the low is not strong, not stronger than the selling into low. That action increases the odds for selling pressure on Friday to the previous low which will form a double bottom pattern. All this depends on the selling pace. Of course that is just one scenario and since Thursday's action was not very strong all options are open. We can see the bounce continuation if the 60 min 10sma will hold and we can see range action. Right now the charts don’t suggest any clear direction and we can’t change that, but we can expect risk level and without clear direction it won’t be low.
On the daily charts I drew a channel line which shows a down trend with a lower high and lower low and that is what we have right now. Unfortunately the daily chart doesn't help us with Friday prediction and answer is same: not good odds for any direction. We can see support clearly and the resistance areas on the 60 min charts and right now we must follow them. One very possible scenario is the selling pressure flushes out the weak hands with a new 60 min low that will be a bottom for now. I will look for intraday setups until the 60 min chart gives us a clear reversal pattern. Note that tomorrow is summer Friday and after the mornings action we can see choppy action the rest of the day which has been will be “normal” action lately.
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